National values fell 0.9% in August, the fifth straight monthly fall, and the RBA has since lifted the cash rate to 4.60%. Yet vacancy stayed under 1% in five capitals and rents kept rising. Prices are soft. Scarcity is not.
Consumer confidence rose for four straight weeks through August to 77.5, before a higher-than-expected 3.5% inflation reading for July pulled it back to 74.9. That is still 3.7 points above late July. The RBA held at 4.35% on 11 August, then lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise this year.
Cotality reports that what began as a fall in the most expensive suburbs has become a broad softening: 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded a decline over winter. This is a moderation in prices, not in the underlying rental scarcity: rents rose another 0.4% in August and 5.7% over the year.
The downturn deepened in August. National dwelling values fell 0.9% over the month, the fifth consecutive fall and steeper than July’s 0.7%. Sydney led the declines (down 1.4%), followed by Melbourne and Canberra (each down 1.1%), Brisbane (down 1.0%) and Adelaide and Perth (each down 0.8%). Darwin, up 0.6%, was the only capital to rise. Cotality reports that 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded a fall in values over winter, up from fewer than half in autumn.
Sentiment told a more mixed story. The ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose four weeks in a row to 77.5 before July’s higher-than-expected 3.5% inflation reading knocked it back to 74.9, still well above late July’s 71.2. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August, then lifted it to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise this year.
Underneath, the rental market did not move. Vacancy held at 1.3% nationally and stayed under 1% in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin, while rents rose 0.4% over the month and 5.7% over the year. Annual value growth remains firmly positive in the mid-sized capitals: Perth +15.6%, Darwin +14.6%, Brisbane +10.8% and Adelaide +8.6%. Prices are soft. Scarcity is not.
For investors, a softer market with tight rentals means more choice, less competition and more room to negotiate, while the income side keeps improving. When the whole market is no longer rising together, research-led selection is what separates the outcomes.
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