National values fell 0.7% in July, the biggest monthly drop since 2022, yet vacancy stayed under 1% in five capitals and the cash rate held at 4.35%. Sentiment is soft. Scarcity is not.
Consumer confidence slid to 71.2 in late July, down 4.4 points and its lowest reading since mid-June, as households turned cautious alongside the price falls. The cash rate held at 4.35% on 11 August, the second consecutive hold.
Momentum told the same story: Perth’s slim +0.1% was the only capital-city gain, and it came with a caution, its June figure was revised to −0.5%. This is a moderation in prices and sentiment, not in the underlying rental scarcity that continues to support well-located assets.
The downturn broadened in July. National dwelling values fell 0.7% over the month, the largest monthly drop since December 2022, with Sydney (down 1.4%) and Melbourne (down 1.2%) leading the declines and even the strong mid-sized capitals easing: Brisbane slipped 0.6% and Adelaide 0.2%. Perth’s slim 0.1% gain came with a caution: its June figure was revised to minus 0.5%.
Sentiment moved the same way. The ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index slid 4.4 points to 71.2 in late July, its lowest reading since mid-June, even as the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August, its second consecutive hold.
Yet the foundations under well-selected property did not move. Vacancy stayed critically tight, sub-1% across Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin, and annual value growth remains firmly positive in the mid-sized capitals: Perth +20.5%, Darwin +16.3%, Brisbane +14.8% and Adelaide +10.5% over the year. Sentiment is soft. Scarcity is not.
July’s message for investors is one of selectivity. In a cooling, higher-rate market the gap between well-located, tightly-held assets and the broader market widens, and that is precisely the environment in which research-led selection earns its keep.
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