Australian residential property · The detail

2026 Market Update
& Forecasts.

A data-led view of where the market is heading — migration, supply, serviceability, yields and the pricing outlook to 2029.

2,500+Client purchases
$1.6B+Property purchased
15+Years of results
+80%Avg. capital gain
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Key factors

Three factors behind every result

01

A high quality team around you

The right people make every decision better.
02

Be cash-flow cautious on every asset

Protect the downside, hold for the long term.
03

Growth — active & persistent

Keep building; compounding does the rest.
Analysis · worked example

Cash-flow analysis

A $650,000 investment property, single buyer on $80,000 — the real, after-tax holding cost once depreciation and the tax credit are applied.

$650KProperty value
$9,265Annual tax credit
−$37/wkNet holding cost after tax
Item2026Year 1
Investment
Property value$650,000
Loan · interest-only$585,000$585,000
Gross rent p/w · 2% vacancy$570$29,047
Deductions
Interest expense · 5.75%$33,368
Property expenses$6,602$6,602
Depreciation$67,000$17,760
Net tax deductions$28,952
Outcome · single on $80,000
Pre-tax cash flow-$11,192
Tax credit$9,265
After-tax cash flow-$1,928
The detail

The 2026 data, in ten charts

Scroll through the numbers driving our outlook — each chart animates as you reach it.

536k
Peak net overseas migration · 2023
Migration is easing from record highs but staying well above the pre-COVID norm — underpinning housing demand for years.
Source: ABS · Federal Gov’t forecasts
+175k
NSW net migration rebound · 2023
NSW & VIC outflows have reversed; QLD & WA are normalising from unusually high inflows.
Source: ABS · Quantify Strategic Insights
3.1%
WA population growth · 2024
Growth is moderating toward pre-COVID levels — led by WA and QLD.
Source: ABS · Quantify Strategic Insights
−34%
Sydney approvals vs 2016 peak
Approvals are recovering but remain far below the level needed to meet demand (’000 dwellings).
Source: ABS · Quantify Strategic Insights
−18k
Sydney dwelling deficit · 2022
Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide stay structurally undersupplied; Canberra is the outlier with a mild oversupply (’000 dwellings, negative = undersupply).
Source: ABS · Quantify Strategic Insights
0.7%
Perth — the tightest capital
Every capital sits well below the ~3% balanced market — keeping rents and tenant demand firm.
Source: SQM Research
44%
Sydney repayments by 2027 (from 55%)
Serviceability — repayments as a share of income — is improving as rates ease and incomes rise.
Source: ABS · RBA & Cotality
+14%
Dwelling growth after 2008–09 cuts
History is clear: national dwelling values rise in the 12 months after the RBA starts cutting.
Source: ABS · RBA & Cotality
4.1%
Brisbane gross rental yield
Yields are firmer in the mid-sized capitals; Sydney & Melbourne remain tightest.
Source: Cotality · Quantify Strategic Insights
+29%
Perth · forecast growth to Jun 2029
Every capital is forecast to grow strongly to 2029 — led by Perth and Brisbane.
Source: Quantify Strategic Insights · forecast median dwelling values

Building a portfolio for wealth

The fundamentals point one way: strong population growth, structural undersupply, tight rentals and improving serviceability. The investors who position early compound the advantage.

Book a strategy call →

This presentation is general information only and is not a substitute for specific advice. Figures are indicative and drawn from ABS, RBA, Cotality, SQM Research and Quantify Strategic Insights. We accept no responsibility for any person who acts on the information herein.

Contact
Meridian Australia
(02) 9939 3249
[email protected]
© Meridian Australia 2026 · Property Investment Consultancy · Privacy Policy · Disclaimer
General information only — tool outputs are indicative estimates, not financial or investment advice.
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