The 2026 Budget split the market in two. Adam Duffy and Angie Zigomanis unpacked what changed, where the market is heading to 2031, and exactly what to buy now. The full replay is below, and here is the read in one page.
The 2026 Budget rewrote the economics of property investing: depreciation deductions were removed on established properties, negative gearing was restricted to new builds only, and the 50% capital gains discount was replaced with indexation. The result is a stark divide. On a $750,000 property, an established home now runs at a cash-flow deficit of about $20,422 a year with no tax credits, while an equivalent new build lands at about $5,162 after a $12,227 tax credit. That is a difference of $294 every week, in favour of new stock.
Angie Zigomanis’ read of the fundamentals: population growth remains at long-term highs even as migration eases, while supply keeps falling behind, with Sydney approvals down 42% from their 2017 peak and a national dwelling shortfall forecast to reach 195,000 by 2027. Vacancy is tight in every capital, with Brisbane under 1%. Quantify expects the rate cycle to turn in late 2027, and history is emphatic about what follows: the last five easing cycles were followed by house price growth of between 18% and 55%.
The forecasts to June 2031: Sydney, Melbourne and Perth +11%, Brisbane +7%, with low-yield established investor stock expected to underperform and rental-focused new product in undersupplied markets best positioned.
17.4% annual growth, 0.9% vacancy and a $119.2 billion infrastructure program. The tightest of our markets in focus, and the one with the biggest pipeline behind it.
Yield an hour from Melbourne: medians around $750k and gross yields of 4.2–4.6%, backed by genuine owner-occupier demand.
The value play of the cycle at a $1.09M median, with Quantify forecasting +11% to June 2031.
Across four recent client case studies, the average capital gain is +98%, with $2.11 million in combined gross profit, and 63% of Meridian clients hold two or more properties.
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